Markets review of 24 March 2025

Team : Data and Analytics Team

China in 2025: temporary adjustment or structural rebalancing of economic growth drivers?

The message delivered by Beijing at the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress at the beginning of March was clear: whatever the difficulties linked to trade and technological rivalries with the United States, the Chinese economy must achieve growth of close to 5% in 2025. The target has remained unchanged since 2023. It seems particularly ambitious this year, given that external demand, the driving force behind Chinese growth in 2024, is set to weaken significantly due to the rise in protectionist measures against China. The authorities are counting on domestic demand to pick up the slack, but this is still coming up against powerful obstacles. The authorities have announced further monetary and fiscal policy easing, as well as various initiatives to stimulate private consumption in the short term. However, the measures envisaged may not be sufficient to rebalance lastingly the sources of Chinese growth. […]