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Archive for WiseInvs
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How can we finance the extra investment needed in the European Union?
The investment required to meet the challenges of competitiveness and energy and technology transition in the European Union is huge, and the need for it is imminent (2025-2030). To this must now be added expenditure to strengthen the European Union’s military capabilities. To finance this, the EU must of course speed up its roadmap towards
FOMC: Waiting and Divided
While the Federal Reserve (Fed) estimates that uncertainty has eased, its conviction that a tariff-related rise in inflation is looming has hardened. The Committee (FOMC) nevertheless appears to be greatly divided on the balance of risks. We maintain our forecast that there will be no rate cuts in 2025 in light of renewed inflationary pressures
Eurozone: demand is firming up progressively
The gradual recovery in demand, which has been noticeable for almost six months, seems to be continuing in the Eurozone. It remains to be confirmed given the uncertainties surrounding US trade policy. Nevertheless, the trend towards improvement has not been called into question by the decisions taken so far. In the medium term, the implementation
FOMC, A Strange Stability
The FOMC kept the target range for the Fed Funds rate at 4.25% – 4.5% at the 18-19 March meeting, as widely expected. Jerome Powell and the committee have started to price in downward risks to economic activity and upward risks to inflation. In the short term, the stability of the dot plots, the downplaying
Germany: “whatever it takes”?
We are almost a week away from a vote that could change the face of Germany. On 18 March, the Bundestag will decide on the adoption of two structural defence and infrastructure projects. A massive budget plan that could exceed EUR 1,000 billion[1] over the next ten years and revive German growth, which has been
February inflation: sharp drop expected in France, stability in the rest of the Eurozone
Inflation has probably eased in February, particularly in France due to the marked cut in the regulated electricity price. However, this overall movement masks divergent trends. Although disinflation is becoming more widespread (two-thirds of the components in Insee’s index show inflation below 2% y/y in January in France), prices continue to rise rapidly in services
German election: A government by Easter?
The result of the German election reveals a clear winner: the CDU/CSU. Only five parties were able to enter parliament, thereby reducing the fragmentation of the Bundestag. A grand coalition with the SPD is possible. Negotiations should begin soon to establish a common roadmap. When they come to an end, changes are to be expected:
France: trade deficit down and current account nearly in balance
The deficit on the trade in goods published by the French Customs authorities on 7 February is likely to have been EUR83 billion for 2024, from EUR100 billion in 2023 (but EUR58 billion in 2019). The improvement in the nominal deficit hides the fall in goods exports. However, the improvement in the balance in volume
FOMC: Time for a Pause
The first FOMC meeting of 2025 (28-29 January) should result in the target rate being held at +4.25% – +4.5%. In our view, this would mark the beginning of a pause lasting until mid-2026, due to the anticipated pick-up in inflation that would result from Donald Trump’s economic policy.1. The Time for Rate Cuts Appears
Eurozone: less deficit, a little more room for manoeuvre
• The euro area government deficit decreased in 2024 to -3.1% of GDP.• Italy and Greece posted primary surpluses even though their interest costs remain high• The fiscal adjustment that still needs to be provided by the countries whose deficits increased in 2024 (France, Austria, Belgium, Finland) will nevertheless act as a brake on growth
