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Nonfarm Payrolls: A Good September Reading Does Not Reduce Uncertainty Surrounding the FOMC’s Upcoming Decision
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Nonfarm Payrolls: A Good September Reading Does Not Reduce Uncertainty Surrounding the FOMC’s Upcoming Decision
September’s US employment figures reported the highest payroll growth since April (+119k). However, this fairly positive reading could prove short-lived due to the impact of the government shutdown. For the Fed, these developments add to the uncertainty surrounding its December meeting. We are still expecting a 25bp rate cut, which is now a close call.Chart
Europe’s economy is in much better shape than our self-bashing culture would have you believe
There has been remarkably limited interest in Europe at recent international economic and financial gatherings, as if “Europe’s moment”, as ECB President Lagarde dubbed it back in the Spring, has already passed in the eyes of many. Meanwhile, European media outlets have been indulging in negative narratives about political risks, persistent industrial doldrums, and inability
EcoNews – 17 November 2025
International tradePresident Trump announced the immediate exemption of additional tariffs on 200 food products (including beef, coffee and bananas) in response to rising grocery prices. An agreement was reached between the United States and Switzerland: the tariff applied by the former on imports from Switzerland (whose GDP contracted in Q3) will be reduced from 39%
Markets review – 17 November 2025
Tuesday, November 18, 2025 Eco Week Markets review – 17 November 2025 Eco Week EcoNews – 17 November 2025 EcoTV Eurozone: New momentum Monday, November 17, 2025 Scenario and forecasts The updated scenario and forecasts of the Economic Research – 17 November 2025 Friday, November 14, 2025 Eco Perspectives Emerging countries: Regional panoramas Eco Perspectives
Digital euro: one cost may hide another
Following PwC in June, the ECB presented its own assessment of the costs of a digital euro for banks in the Eurozone. Thanks to extensive cost synergies, their initial investment over the first four years, estimated at EUR 18 billion by PwC, would, according to the ECB, be within a more modest range (between EUR
EcoNews – 10 November 2025
GLOBAL TRADEThe US Supreme Court is currently examining the legality of Donald Trump’s invocation of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (1977) to impose “reciprocal” tariffs and tariffs related to fentanyl. The Supremes’ questions suggested skepticism that the IEEPA authorises sweeping tariffs even though it does not explicitly mention them, and even though the Constitution
Markets review – 10 November 2025
Monday, November 10, 2025 Eco Week Markets review – 10 November 2025 Eco Week EcoNews – 10 November 2025 Scenario and forecasts The updated scenario and forecasts of the Economic Research – 10 November 2025 Monday, November 3, 2025 Eco Week Markets review – 3 November 2025 Eco Week EcoNews – 3 November 2025 Friday
Argentina: What lessons can be learned from the midterm elections?
Against all odds, Argentine President Javier Milei’s party emerged victorious in the 26 October midterm elections, despite suffering an electoral setback less than two months earlier. What was behind this turnaround, given that the economic and social situation has deteriorated significantly since the spring? Will the easing of tensions on the peso and the risk
EcoNews – 3 November 2025
ADVANCED ECONOMIESInternational tradeExtended truce between China and the United States. China postpones its restrictions on rare earth exports for one year and resumes purchases of American soybeans. In return, the United States reduces additional tariffs on fentanyl from 20% to 10% and extends the pause on so-called “reciprocal” tariffs (maintained at 10%). Trade agreement between
Markets review – 3 November 2025
Monday, November 3, 2025 Eco Week Markets review – 3 November 2025 Eco Week EcoNews – 3 November 2025 Scenario and forecasts The updated scenario and forecasts of the Economic Research – 3 November 2025 Friday, October 31, 2025 Eco Charts Inflation Tracker – November 2025 | Limited rebound in inflation in September Tuesday, October
