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United States: Yellow Alert on Activity
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United States: Yellow Alert on Activity
The adverse effects of the Trump administration’s trade and migration policies on US economic activity are emerging, as they were reflected in the July Employment Situation report and the economy as a whole is exhibiting further signs of a clear loss of momentum. Meanwhile, the trade agreements recently signed should ease the uncertainty shock. Finally
Resilient growth in Q2, in both the Eurozone and the United States
GDP growth figures for the first half of the year were clouded by a series of conflicting factors. In Q2, growth in the Eurozone was hit by a decline in exports, while imports in the United States led to a sharp rebound. This is a backlash from Q1, when additional exports, in anticipation of the
EU-US Trade Deal: A Damage Limitation Success
Presidents Trump and Von der Leyen announced yesterday from Scotland that a trade agreement had been reached. Is it a good deal? Political commentators and many editorialists mostly say no. The stock market reaction says yes. Our take: the deal is at the better end of the spectrum of what could realistically be achieved. Importantly
The Global Economy at Mid-Year: So Far, So Good. But Watch Out for These Three Derailers in the Second Half
Outside the US, GDP growth in the first quarter generally exceeded expectations in the European Union, the UK, and emerging economies, including China. After the surge in imports that preceded the US tariff hike, the backlash in the second quarter will be more limited than expected in most cases. However, it would be premature to
EcoNews – 21 July 2025
ADVANCED ECONOMIESUnited StatesThe impact of tariffs starts to be felt on prices. Headline inflation in June came in slightly above consensus (2.7% vs. 2.6% y/y and 0.3% m/m), while the core measure was lower (2.9% vs. 3.0% y/y; 0.2% vs. 0.3% MoM). In services, disinflation appears to be fading, with prices rising slightly (+3.6% YoY
Markets Review – 21 July 2025
Monday, July 21, 2025 Eco Week Markets Review – 21 July 2025 Eco Week EcoNews – 21 July 2025 Eco Week The Global Economy at Mid-Year: So Far, So Good. But Watch Out for These Three Derailers in the Second Half Scenario and forecasts The updated scenario and forecasts of the Economic Research – 21
Emerging economies are no longer as vulnerable to US monetary policy as they once were
The latest monetary tightening in the United States between March 2022 and July 2023 resulted in much larger outflows of portfolio investments by non-residents than during the previous tightening (2016-2018) and the famous taper tantrum of 2013. However, emerging economies are less vulnerable to monetary tightening across the Atlantic than they were a decade ago.
EcoNews – 15 July 2025
ADVANCED ECONOMIESUnited StatesTariffs: see you on 1 August… but not really. Initially scheduled for 9 July, the expiry of the suspension of “reciprocal” tariffs has been postponed to 1 August to allow agreements to be reached by then. This deadline should mark the entry into force of the new tariffs (see below) and, in the
Markets Review – 15 July 2025
Tuesday, July 15, 2025 Eco Week Markets Review – 15 July 2025 Eco Week EcoNews – 15 July 2025 Scenario and forecasts The updated scenario and forecasts of the Economic Research – 15 July 2025 Tuesday, July 8, 2025 Eco Pulse China: Moderate slowdown in exports and fiscal support Eco Pulse Japan: Improvement in the
What’s on Central Bankers Minds Heading into the Summer?
Each year, summer is bookended by two landmark central banking conferences where central bankers, academics and a few members of the private financial sector congregate to discuss new research of interest for monetary policy and compare notes on the outlook: in late June, the ECB Forum held in the windy coastal town of Sintra, Portugal;
