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French Budget: The Hardest Part is Yet to Come
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French Budget: The Hardest Part is Yet to Come
France’s fiscal deficit worsened in 2023 and 2024. Spending growth was maintained, despite the slowdown in public revenues growth. The 2025 budget should enable consolidation to begin thanks to a rebound in revenues. However, spending as a share of GDP is expected to remain relatively stable. The challenge of continuing fiscal consolidation in 2026 therefore
EcoNews – 19 May 2025
ADVANCED ECONOMIES United StatesHeadline inflation for April was lower than expected, but inflation expectations continue to rise. Inflation (as measured by the CPI) reached 2.3% y/y (its lowest level since February 2021) due to a sharp decline in energy prices (-3.7% y/y), while core inflation remained unchanged at 2.8% y/y. Producer prices fell by 0.5%
Markets Review – 19 May 2025
Thursday, June 19, 2025 Eco Flash FOMC: Waiting and Divided Wednesday, June 18, 2025 Charts of the Week In the Eurozone, inflation is also a monetary phenomenon Monday, June 16, 2025 Eco Week Markets Review – 16 June 2025 Eco Week EcoNews – 16 June 2025 Scenario and forecasts The updated scenario and forecasts of
Resilience of Central European economies amidst tariff shock
Central European economies have defied pessimist predictions in recent years on their ability to cope with shocks. The region posted a less pronounced GDP contraction in 2020 compared to advanced EU countries. In 2022, at the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war, the region was viewed as the most exposed within Europe due its high energy
EcoNews – 12 May 2025
INTERNATIONAL TRADEUnited States/United Kingdom Trade Deal: the United Kingdom has obtained an exemption from customs duties on aluminium and steel, provided that it meets the United States’ economic-security requirements in their supply chains. A quota of 100,000 cars (i.e. the vast majority of exported vehicles) will see their customs duties reduced to 10%, compared with
Markets Review – 12 May 2025
Thursday, June 19, 2025 Eco Flash FOMC: Waiting and Divided Wednesday, June 18, 2025 Charts of the Week In the Eurozone, inflation is also a monetary phenomenon Monday, June 16, 2025 Eco Week Markets Review – 16 June 2025 Eco Week EcoNews – 16 June 2025 Scenario and forecasts The updated scenario and forecasts of
The dollar demise question: what’s different this time?
Since WWII ended, 80 years ago this week, the US dollar has been the unparalleled dominant currency at the center of the international monetary and financial system. Every now and then, questions have arisen about this dominance and for brief periods became front page material in the financial press. Despite the excitement invariably elicited, the
EcoNews – 5 May 2025
ADVANCED ECONOMIESUnited StatesNegative growth in Q1 2025 but robust job market ahead of the Fed meeting. First contraction in GDP for three years in Q1 2025 (-0.1% q/q, compared with +0.6% in Q4 2024), due to the surge in imports of goods (+10.9% q/q, the highest since 1972 excluding the post-Covid reopening), the fall in
Slowdown and reconfiguration of global trade in 2025: what are the implications for emerging countries?
The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and the acceleration of the US-China decoupling will lead to a slowdown in global economic growth, a further reconfiguration of international trade, and the continued reorganization of value chains. These changes will have multiple consequences for emerging countries. All will suffer negative effects linked to the slowdown in
EcoNews – 16 June 2025
International tradeTensions eased between the United States and China. An agreement, yet to be formalised, has been reached between China and the United States to preserve the tariff truce and, in particular, the supply of rare earths to the United States. While the G7 could provide a window to make progress in negotiations between trading
