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FOMC: Easing Under Constraints
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FOMC: Easing Under Constraints
As widely anticipated, the 16-17 September FOMC meeting ended with the Fed reducing its target rate by 25bp, while reasserting its independence. While the marked slowdown in payroll growth prompted the Fed to cut the policy rate for the first time in 2025, it reiterated that future decisions would remain data-dependent. In our view, the
Domestic credit supporting growth in emerging countries
Economic growth in emerging countries held up well in the first half of 2025. So far, US tariff measures have had little impact on global trade and therefore on their exports. Furthermore, domestic demand, another driver of growth in these countries, remains strong, in particular thanks to the support of domestic credit. Bank lending growth
EcoNews – 15 September 2025
ADVANCED ECONOMIES United StatesInflation rises, job creation revised downwards againInflation, as measured by the CPI, rose by+2.9% y/y in August (+0.2pp, +0.4% m/m). Core inflation was stable at +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y. The difference can be explained by the acceleration in energy and food inflation. The core component rose for goods (due to the
Markets Review – 15 September 2025
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In China, economic growth remains resilient but the fight against deflation is far from won
Since the beginning of the year, China’s economic growth has proved to be more robust than expected. Exports have withstood US tariff attacks and household consumption has recovered thanks to government stimulus programs.However, large clouds are casting a shadow over the picture and are likely to slow growth in the second half of the year.
EcoNews – 8 September 2025
International tradeReciprocal tariffs soon to be heard by the Supreme Court. The Trump administration is challenging the Federal Court of Appeals’ ruling confirming the illegality of “reciprocal” tariffs and those related to opioids before the Supreme Court. The administration wants the case to be heard quickly, with hearings scheduled to begin in November. In addition
Markets Review – 8 September 2025
Monday, September 8, 2025 Eco Week Markets Review – 8 September 2025 Eco Week EcoNews – 8 September 2025 Scenario and forecasts The updated scenario and forecasts of the Economic Research – 8 September 2025 Tuesday, September 2, 2025 Eco Week Markets Review – 1st September 2025 Eco Week EcoNews – 1st September 2025 Monday
United States: lackluster summer employment data will prompt the Fed to act
The August Employment Situation featured weak payroll growth and a rise in the unemployment rate. The release confirmed the downside risks surrounding the US labour market. The FOMC is expected to lower the Fed Funds Target Range (-25 bps) for the first time in 2025 at its 16-17 September meeting. Sharp decline in nonfarm payrollsSource:
What should we take away from this summer’s economic developments, and what should we monitor this fall ?
Broadly speaking, the economic outlook for the global economy at the beginning of September remains largely unchanged from that at the end of July: namely, an economy that, overall, continues to withstand the double blow of US tariffs and uncertainty. Our current scenario expects an average annual growth of 1.6% in the United States in
EcoNews – 1st September 2025
International tradeReciprocal tariffs suspended pending Supreme Court ruling. A US Court of Appeals decision has upheld the Court of International trade’s ruling that the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) are illegal. This applies to “reciprocal” tariffs and those related to opioids. Tariffs remain in effect until 14
