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What should we take away from this summer’s economic developments, and what should we monitor this fall ?
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What should we take away from this summer’s economic developments, and what should we monitor this fall ?
Broadly speaking, the economic outlook for the global economy at the beginning of September remains largely unchanged from that at the end of July: namely, an economy that, overall, continues to withstand the double blow of US tariffs and uncertainty. Our current scenario expects an average annual growth of 1.6% in the United States in
EcoNews – 1st September 2025
International tradeReciprocal tariffs suspended pending Supreme Court ruling. A US Court of Appeals decision has upheld the Court of International trade’s ruling that the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) are illegal. This applies to “reciprocal” tariffs and those related to opioids. Tariffs remain in effect until 14
Markets Review – 1st September 2025
THE ECONOMISTS WHO PARTICIPATED IN THIS ARTICLE Team : Data and Analytics Team PDF – Full publication Other articles from the same publication What should we take away from this summer’s economic developments, and what should we monitor this fall ? Broadly speaking, the economic outlook for the global economy at the beginning of September
India: fiscal policy to support growth
Despite robust growth between April and June 2025 (probably overestimated), the government is stepping up measures to support the Indian economy. The “Goods and Services Tax Council”, which is due to meet on 3 and 4 September, is expected to approve a cut in VAT rates. This measure would counteract the effects of the increase
What Made Powell Blink?
In his much-awaited speech at the annual Jackson Hole central bankers’ symposium, his last as Chair of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Jerome Powell delivered a dovish surprise by opening the door wide to a rate cut at the FOMC’s upcoming meeting, his tone a long way away from his hawkish press conference following the July
EcoNews – 25 August 2025
INTERNATIONALNew tariff schedule announced by the Trump administration in early August: the 10% floor rate remains in place for countries with a bilateral trade deficit with the United States, i.e. most countries in Latin America, Africa and the Middle East, as well as Singapore. Brazil is the major exception in this category (reciprocal customs duties
Market Overview – 25 August 2025
THE ECONOMISTS WHO PARTICIPATED IN THIS ARTICLE Team : Data and Analytics Team PDF – Full publication Other articles from the same publication What Made Powell Blink? In his much-awaited speech at the annual Jackson Hole central bankers’ symposium, his last as Chair of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Jerome Powell delivered a dovish surprise by
United States: Yellow Alert on Activity
The adverse effects of the Trump administration’s trade and migration policies on US economic activity are emerging, as they were reflected in the July Employment Situation report and the economy as a whole is exhibiting further signs of a clear loss of momentum. Meanwhile, the trade agreements recently signed should ease the uncertainty shock. Finally
Resilient growth in Q2, in both the Eurozone and the United States
GDP growth figures for the first half of the year were clouded by a series of conflicting factors. In Q2, growth in the Eurozone was hit by a decline in exports, while imports in the United States led to a sharp rebound. This is a backlash from Q1, when additional exports, in anticipation of the
EU-US Trade Deal: A Damage Limitation Success
Presidents Trump and Von der Leyen announced yesterday from Scotland that a trade agreement had been reached. Is it a good deal? Political commentators and many editorialists mostly say no. The stock market reaction says yes. Our take: the deal is at the better end of the spectrum of what could realistically be achieved. Importantly
