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The Global Economy at Mid-Year: So Far, So Good. But Watch Out for These Three Derailers in the Second Half
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The Global Economy at Mid-Year: So Far, So Good. But Watch Out for These Three Derailers in the Second Half
Outside the US, GDP growth in the first quarter generally exceeded expectations in the European Union, the UK, and emerging economies, including China. After the surge in imports that preceded the US tariff hike, the backlash in the second quarter will be more limited than expected in most cases. However, it would be premature to
EcoNews – 21 July 2025
ADVANCED ECONOMIESUnited StatesThe impact of tariffs starts to be felt on prices. Headline inflation in June came in slightly above consensus (2.7% vs. 2.6% y/y and 0.3% m/m), while the core measure was lower (2.9% vs. 3.0% y/y; 0.2% vs. 0.3% MoM). In services, disinflation appears to be fading, with prices rising slightly (+3.6% YoY
Markets Review – 21 July 2025
Monday, July 21, 2025 Eco Week Markets Review – 21 July 2025 Eco Week EcoNews – 21 July 2025 Eco Week The Global Economy at Mid-Year: So Far, So Good. But Watch Out for These Three Derailers in the Second Half Scenario and forecasts The updated scenario and forecasts of the Economic Research – 21
Emerging economies are no longer as vulnerable to US monetary policy as they once were
The latest monetary tightening in the United States between March 2022 and July 2023 resulted in much larger outflows of portfolio investments by non-residents than during the previous tightening (2016-2018) and the famous taper tantrum of 2013. However, emerging economies are less vulnerable to monetary tightening across the Atlantic than they were a decade ago.
EcoNews – 15 July 2025
ADVANCED ECONOMIESUnited StatesTariffs: see you on 1 August… but not really. Initially scheduled for 9 July, the expiry of the suspension of “reciprocal” tariffs has been postponed to 1 August to allow agreements to be reached by then. This deadline should mark the entry into force of the new tariffs (see below) and, in the
Markets Review – 15 July 2025
Tuesday, July 15, 2025 Eco Week Markets Review – 15 July 2025 Eco Week EcoNews – 15 July 2025 Scenario and forecasts The updated scenario and forecasts of the Economic Research – 15 July 2025 Tuesday, July 8, 2025 Eco Pulse China: Moderate slowdown in exports and fiscal support Eco Pulse Japan: Improvement in the
What’s on Central Bankers Minds Heading into the Summer?
Each year, summer is bookended by two landmark central banking conferences where central bankers, academics and a few members of the private financial sector congregate to discuss new research of interest for monetary policy and compare notes on the outlook: in late June, the ECB Forum held in the windy coastal town of Sintra, Portugal;
EcoNews – 7 July 2025
WORLD/TRADEPending US announcements on tariffs. The 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs will expire on 9 July. D. Trump announced that tariffs applicable to several countries, ranging from 10% to 70%, would be notified from 4 July and would come into force on 1st August. Vietnam and the United States have reportedly reached a bilateral trade
Markets Review – 7 July 2025
THE ECONOMISTS WHO PARTICIPATED IN THIS ARTICLE Team : Data and Analytics Team PDF – Full publication Other articles from the same publication What’s on Central Bankers Minds Heading into the Summer? Each year, summer is bookended by two landmark central banking conferences where central bankers, academics and a few members of the private financial
Securitisation: Will the European Commission’s recent attempt to relaunch be the right one?
Faced with the need to find the necessary funding for the massive investments required for the energy and technological transitions identified by Mario Draghi in his report, and for Europe’s defence remobilisation (Readiness 2030), on 19 March, the European Commission unveiled its strategy for a “Savings and Investments Union” (SIEU), of which securitisation is an
