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Deteriorating growth prospects due to the US tariff shock: an update
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Deteriorating growth prospects due to the US tariff shock: an update
The announcements on April 2, featuring a massive and widespread (albeit differentiated by country) increase in US tariffs, constitute a historic shock. The final extent of the damage and the aftershocks remain to be seen, but there is no doubt that the economic consequences will be negative, starting with the United States. They are already
EcoNews – 22 April 2025
WORLD/INTERNATIONAL TRADEThe WTO has drastically lowered its forecasts for world trade. Trade in goods is expected to fall by 0.2% this year, 2.9 percentage points below previous estimates. North American exports are set to plunge by 12.6% in 2025 (-0.4% in 2026), while Asian exports would slow to 1.6%, before rebounding in 2026. The revisions
Markets review of 22 April 2025
Thursday, June 19, 2025 Eco Flash FOMC: Waiting and Divided Wednesday, June 18, 2025 Charts of the Week In the Eurozone, inflation is also a monetary phenomenon Monday, June 16, 2025 Eco Week Markets Review – 16 June 2025 Eco Week EcoNews – 16 June 2025 Scenario and forecasts The updated scenario and forecasts of
On the oil market, how far does the convergence of interests between OPEC+ and Trump go?
By accelerating the fall in oil prices, the timing between OPEC+’s decision to accelerate quota easing, and the Trump administration’s announcement of the start of a tariff war could limit inflationary pressures for US consumers and put pressure on the cartel’s undisciplined members. However, the convergence of interests between the heavyweights of the oil market
EcoNews – 15 April 2025
ADVANCED ECONOMIESUnited States – WorldA reciprocal tariff floor rate for everyone except China. On 9 April, the day the “reciprocal tariffs” came into force, Trump announced that they would be suspended – with the exception of that applied to China – for 90 days during which a 10% floor tariff will apply instead. This truce
Markets review of 14 April 2025
THE ECONOMISTS WHO PARTICIPATED IN THIS ARTICLE Team : Data and Analytics Team PDF – Full publication Other articles from the same publication On the oil market, how far does the convergence of interests between OPEC+ and Trump go? By accelerating the fall in oil prices, the timing between OPEC+’s decision to accelerate quota easing
EcoNews – 26 May 2025
World / Global TradeThe European Union in the Trump administration’s crosshairs: in response to slow negotiations, the US President initially threatened to impose a 50% tariff on imports from the EU starting on 1 June. Following discussions with Ursula Van Der Leyen, the deadline was pushed back to 9 July, with the President of the
Markets Review – 26 May 2025
Thursday, June 19, 2025 Eco Flash FOMC: Waiting and Divided Wednesday, June 18, 2025 Charts of the Week In the Eurozone, inflation is also a monetary phenomenon Monday, June 16, 2025 Eco Week Markets Review – 16 June 2025 Eco Week EcoNews – 16 June 2025 Scenario and forecasts The updated scenario and forecasts of
French Budget: The Hardest Part is Yet to Come
France’s fiscal deficit worsened in 2023 and 2024. Spending growth was maintained, despite the slowdown in public revenues growth. The 2025 budget should enable consolidation to begin thanks to a rebound in revenues. However, spending as a share of GDP is expected to remain relatively stable. The challenge of continuing fiscal consolidation in 2026 therefore
EcoNews – 19 May 2025
ADVANCED ECONOMIES United StatesHeadline inflation for April was lower than expected, but inflation expectations continue to rise. Inflation (as measured by the CPI) reached 2.3% y/y (its lowest level since February 2021) due to a sharp decline in energy prices (-3.7% y/y), while core inflation remained unchanged at 2.8% y/y. Producer prices fell by 0.5%
